Global oil prices collapsed by 5% Monday after confidential sources confirmed that negotiators in Vienna have reached a near-final draft of a US-Iran nuclear deal, one that would lift key sanctions on Iran’s oil exports if signed by President Donald Trump. Brent crude dropped below $78 a barrel within hours of the leak, while West Texas Intermediate slid to $72, as traders priced in the prospect of up to 1.3 million barrels per day of Iranian crude re-entering global markets within months.

The breakthrough comes after 18 months of intermittent talks brokered by the European Union, with French President Emmanuel Macron playing a pivotal role in brokering last-minute compromises. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed late Sunday that “the contours of an agreement are in place,” though he cautioned that “nothing is final until the ink dries.” Trump, who has long criticized the nuclear pact negotiated under his predecessor, has yet to publicly comment but is expected to review the text this week.

Energy analysts warn that even a partial lifting of sanctions could flood markets already grappling with weak demand in China and Europe. The International Energy Agency estimates that Iranian exports could surge from 400,000 bpd to over 1.5 million bpd within six months if the deal holds. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has not commented publicly but sources say Riyadh is preparing contingency plans to cut production if prices fall below $70.

Oil industry executives in Houston and London described the market reaction as “overzealous,” noting that Trump’s unpredictable stance could derail the deal before it is ratified. One senior trader at Vitol Group said, “The market is pricing in a done deal, but deals don’t exist until the president signs them—and Trump has burned bridges before.”

The proposed agreement includes strict limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment and intrusive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but it omits any mention of Iran’s ballistic missile program—a red line for previous US administrations. Trump has signaled he may demand missile restrictions as part of any final deal, which could reopen negotiations and delay market stabilization.

Meanwhile, European refiners are scrambling to secure alternative supply contracts, fearing renewed competition from Iranian crude. Shell and TotalEnergies have reportedly held emergency meetings with Saudi Aramco to lock in long-term supply deals at discounted rates. In Asia, Indian and Chinese state refiners are preparing to ramp up purchases from Tehran, potentially reshaping global trade routes.

1. First 30 days — Iranian oil exports expected to rise by 300,000 bpd as sanctions are eased.
2. Next 90 days — Full lifting of sanctions could push exports to 1.3 million bpd.
3. Six months — Global oil inventories may increase by 5%, pressuring prices further.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs now predict Brent crude could fall below $70 by year-end if the deal survives Trump’s scrutiny. But they caution that geopolitical risks remain high. “This deal is not a fait accompli,” said a senior analyst. “Trump has the power to walk away—and history shows he often does when cornered.”