London — UK motorists have watched petrol and diesel prices jump since the Iran-Israel conflict erupted on Feb. 28, with the latest data showing diesel now averaging £1.55 per litre and unleaded petrol £1.48. The surge follows a 12% rise in just over two weeks, the fastest increase since the 2022 Ukraine invasion disrupted global oil markets.

The conflict between Iran and Israel has triggered a supply shock in global oil markets, with Brent crude jumping 18% to £78 per barrel since the first missile strikes on Feb. 28. UK fuel retailers, including Shell and BP, confirmed price hikes at their pumps within 48 hours of the escalation, blaming increased shipping insurance costs and rerouted tanker routes.

Transport analysts warn the price spike could add £20 to the average weekly fuel bill for drivers covering 300 miles, pushing household transport costs to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The RAC Foundation estimates that if prices remain at current levels, UK drivers will spend an extra £1.2 billion on fuel over the next six months.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has convened an emergency meeting with energy officials to assess the impact on inflation and household budgets. Speaking in Manchester, she said: “We are monitoring the situation closely and stand ready to support families hit hardest by this volatility.” The Treasury has not ruled out temporarily suspending fuel duty to cushion the blow, a move last used during the 2022 energy crisis.

Oil industry insiders report that tanker routes via the Red Sea have been disrupted, forcing ships to take the longer Cape of Good Hope route around Africa. This adds £3 to £5 per barrel in shipping costs, according to industry calculations. The disruption comes as OPEC+ meets next week to discuss production cuts, which could further tighten global supply.

The conflict has also reignited debates over the UK’s fuel duty freeze, which has been in place since 2011. Opposition MPs are calling for an immediate cut in duty to mitigate the price surge, while motoring groups argue for a more sustainable long-term strategy. The Automobile Association has urged the government to introduce a fuel price cap, similar to the energy price cap, to protect consumers.

1. First — Shell has announced it will absorb half of the price increase at 500 of its UK stations to support loyal customers.
2. Second — BP has introduced a loyalty discount of 2p per litre for app users, valid until April 30.
3. Third — The Petrol Retailers Association warns smaller independents may struggle to compete without government support.

Industry analysts at Cornwall Insight predict that if the conflict spreads to neighbouring Gulf states, UK fuel prices could hit £1.70 per litre by April. The government’s contingency plans include tapping into the UK’s emergency oil reserves, though officials have not confirmed whether this will be activated.

• 🔍 The UK imports 70% of its diesel from Europe, where refining capacity has been reduced by sanctions on Russian oil.
• ⚠️ Analysts caution that even if the conflict de-escalates, prices may not return to pre-Feb. 28 levels due to structural changes in global oil supply chains.
• 📊 Households in rural areas, where public transport is limited, are expected to be hardest hit, with some reporting fuel costs now accounting for 12% of monthly budgets.