WASHINGTON — In a high-stakes gamble, former President Donald Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat, throwing the weight of his political brand behind a Republican incumbent mired in legal and ethical controversies. Trump’s endorsement, revealed Sunday evening, arrives just days before Paxton faces John Cornyn in a runoff to determine the party’s nominee for the November election.

Paxton, 61, has been a lightning rod for conservative Texas voters since taking office in 2015, but his political future has never been more precarious. The 61st attorney general of Texas now confronts 20 felony charges of securities fraud and a state House impeachment process that could bar him from ever holding office again. Yet Trump’s endorsement signals a calculated bet on Paxton’s ability to galvanize the GOP base ahead of a potential general election battle against Democrat Colin Allred.

The timing of Trump’s endorsement is strategic. Texas’ runoff system requires candidates to secure over 50% of the vote in the initial primary, a threshold Cornyn narrowly missed with 49.3%, while Paxton earned 44.1%. The narrow margin forced a runoff where Paxton must now consolidate hardline conservatives and disaffected evangelical voters who backed other candidates in March.

Paxton’s campaign has already seized on Trump’s endorsement, framing it as a validation of conservative resistance against a “corrupt establishment.” His team released a statement Sunday night calling Trump’s support “a mandate for holding the line against the radical left.” Cornyn’s campaign responded by emphasizing stability, with a senior advisor stating, “John Cornyn has delivered for Texas for 20 years. That’s the record voters trust.”

Legal experts warn that Paxton’s legal woes could resurface as a liability. “The impeachment process is ongoing, and the Senate seat is not a shield against removal from office,” said University of Texas law professor Stephen Vladeck. “If Paxton is barred from holding public office, Texas would face a costly special election.” The Texas House’s impeachment proceedings, which began in May, now enter a critical phase with a committee scheduled to present its findings to the full chamber next week.

The runoff’s outcome will ripple beyond Texas. A Paxton victory would solidify Trump’s influence in down-ballot races, while a Cornyn win could signal a rare breach in the former president’s grip on the GOP. Political analysts suggest the race is a referendum on Trump’s brand of politics as much as it is on Paxton’s fitness for office. “This isn’t just about Texas,” said Rice University political science professor Mark Jones. “It’s about whether the Republican Party still answers to Trump or if it’s starting to chart its own course.”

1. First — Trump’s endorsement could mobilize his base but risks alienating moderates
2. Second — Paxton’s legal troubles introduce unprecedented uncertainty into the race
3. Third — Cornyn’s experience is his strongest asset but may not resonate with Trump-aligned voters

With early voting already underway and Election Day on Tuesday, the stakes could not be higher. Cornyn, 72, has framed the race as a choice between experience and chaos, while Paxton’s team leans into the narrative of an outsider battling a political establishment. The runoff’s loser will face an uphill climb in November against Allred, a former NFL player and congressman with his own fundraising prowess.