Riga — Evika Silina stepped down as Latvia's prime minister on Tuesday, capping a 72-hour political earthquake triggered by accusations that Ukrainian military drones had violated Latvian sovereignty. The resignation came hours after a closed-door emergency cabinet meeting in the Chancellery, where coalition partners deadlocked over whether to lodge a formal protest with Kyiv or pursue a softer diplomatic route.

The immediate trigger was a mid-air radar blip over eastern Latvia on Sunday, later confirmed as a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone straying 12 kilometers inside the border. Defense Minister Andris Spruds confirmed the aircraft was on a routine patrol mission but admitted navigation systems had failed, pushing it off course. "This was not an act of aggression," Spruds told reporters, "but it violated Latvian airspace and eroded public trust."

Silina’s departure marks the first time a Latvian prime minister has resigned due to a foreign military incident since the country joined NATO in 2004. Her interim replacement, Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis, will lead a caretaker government until a new coalition can be formed within 30 days. The crisis has exposed tensions between Latvia’s pro-Ukraine stance and its obligations under NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause.

The drone incident comes as NATO conducts its largest Baltic air policing mission in a decade, with 16 allied fighter jets rotating through Ämari Air Base in Estonia. Defense analysts warn the episode could embolden Russian disinformation campaigns targeting NATO cohesion, especially ahead of next month’s Vilnius summit where Ukraine’s NATO aspirations will dominate the agenda.

Silina, who took office in September 2023, leaves with her approval rating at 29%, the lowest of any Latvian leader in the past five years. Her resignation speech emphasized the need to "preserve Latvia’s security without compromising principles," but critics argue the government’s slow response has already damaged its credibility. Opposition leader Artūrs Krišjānis Kariņš called the incident a "strategic misstep" that played into Moscow’s hands.

With the caretaker government now in place, all eyes are on the coalition negotiations. The National Alliance has signaled it will push for stricter airspace enforcement, while New Unity seeks a compromise that avoids alienating Ukraine. The Harmony Party, representing Latvia’s Russian-speaking minority, has called for a full parliamentary investigation into "systemic failures" in air defense.

1. First — Coalition parties have 30 days to form a new government or face fresh elections.
2. Second — NATO’s air policing mission in the Baltics will increase to 20 jets next month.
3. Third — Ukraine has pledged to review its drone navigation protocols and share real-time flight data with Baltic states.

The political fallout extends beyond Riga. In Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged restraint, warning that "any escalation risks undermining support for Ukraine." Meanwhile, Moscow’s state media has amplified the incident, framing it as evidence of NATO’s inability to control its own members’ airspace.

• 📊 58% of Latvians now support stricter border controls with Ukraine
• 🔍 Analysts say the crisis could delay Ukraine’s NATO membership bid
• ⚠️ Russian-linked hackers targeted Latvian government websites within hours of the drone report