The director of U.S. national intelligence declared Wednesday that Iran’s government remains structurally intact but has suffered significant erosion in influence and cohesion since 2020. Speaking before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in Washington, Avril Haines told lawmakers that Tehran’s ability to project power across the Middle East has been "largely degraded," though its nuclear program and core security apparatus remain intact.

Haines, who has held the post since 2021, described a regime increasingly isolated diplomatically and financially, with its ballistic missile stockpiles aging and regional proxies—from Yemen to Syria—facing battlefield setbacks. Yet she emphasized that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and domestic security forces remain firmly in control, preventing any organized challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s authority.

Intelligence officials also highlighted a sharp rise in dissent within Iran’s elite, including among mid-level military officers and business figures who have grown disillusioned with Khamenei’s hardline policies. According to a classified assessment reviewed by this newspaper, at least 12 high-ranking officers have been quietly sidelined or arrested in the past 18 months for questioning the regime’s direction. Sources within Iran’s expatriate community report that even some former Revolutionary Guard commanders now privately support a negotiated transition.

The intelligence assessment comes as Iran’s oil exports, a lifeline for the regime, have dropped below 1 million barrels per day—a third of pre-2018 levels—due to U.S. and EU sanctions enforcement. Meanwhile, its nuclear program has advanced, with inspectors recently confirming Iran now possesses enough highly enriched uranium for several nuclear weapons if enriched further, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Haines warned that while Iran’s long-term stability remains uncertain, its short-term survival is nearly guaranteed barring a sudden, unmanageable crisis. She noted that the regime has repeatedly demonstrated resilience, adapting to crises that once seemed existential—including the 2020 assassination of General Qasem Soleimani and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests. Yet she cautioned that the cumulative pressure could eventually fracture the system from within.

Former U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence briefings say the assessment reflects a growing recognition in Washington that while Iran’s regime is weakened, it is not on the brink of collapse. "The regime is like a sandcastle being eroded by the tide," said one former senior intelligence official. "It’s still standing, but every wave takes away more of its foundation."

• 📊 The IRGC’s budget now consumes over 25% of Iran’s national budget, straining other critical services
• 🔍 Whistleblowers within Iran’s intelligence community report increased monitoring of private communications among elites
• ⚠️ Sanctions relief remains the regime’s top foreign policy priority, but any deal faces steep political hurdles in both Tehran and Washington

The warning from Haines underscores the Biden administration’s delicate balancing act: maintaining pressure on Iran’s nuclear program and regional aggression while avoiding actions that could provoke a direct military confrontation. The White House has ruled out military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities but continues to enforce sanctions and support proxy groups in Iraq and Syria to counter Tehran’s influence.