Kenyan and Ugandan officials have launched a coordinated push to slash imports of secondhand clothing by 2026, a move that could unravel a $1.5 billion regional trade network and ignite new trade wars with Washington and Beijing. The plan, announced jointly by Kenya’s Ministry of Industry and Uganda’s Ministry of Trade, aims to reduce used textile imports by 50% over the next two years, replacing them with locally produced alternatives. At stake is not just the future of Gikomba Market in Nairobi—the largest open-air bazaar in East Africa—but an industry that supports over 250,000 jobs across the region.

The decision comes amid mounting pressure on governments to revive flagging textile sectors, which have seen a 30% decline in production since 2015. In Kenya, the number of active textile factories has dropped from 120 to fewer than 50, according to the Kenya Association of Manufacturers. Uganda’s textile industry, once a regional powerhouse, now operates at just 35% capacity. Officials say the reliance on secondhand imports—often donated by Western charities and sold cheaply—has choked domestic production and left local manufacturers unable to compete.

Traders in Gikomba Market, where bales of used clothing from the U.S., Europe, and China are unpacked daily, warn that the crackdown will trigger a price surge and leave low-income consumers with fewer affordable options. ‘People here survive on secondhand clothes because they’re cheap,’ said Fatuma Mohamed, a vendor who has sold imported garments in Gikomba for 12 years. ‘If prices go up, they’ll stop buying, and my family’s income disappears overnight.’ The market alone employs over 10,000 people directly and supports countless others through ancillary businesses like tailoring and transport.

The proposed restrictions could also reignite diplomatic tensions, particularly with the U.S. In 2017, former President Donald Trump threatened to revoke Kenya’s duty-free trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) after Nairobi hinted at a ban on secondhand clothing imports. The U.S. has since backed off, but officials in Nairobi say Washington has privately warned of potential consequences. ‘We understand the risks,’ said a senior Kenyan trade official who requested anonymity. ‘But we can’t ignore the collapse of our own industry.’

China, another major player in the used clothing trade, has also raised concerns. Beijing has invested heavily in East Africa’s textile sector, particularly in Ethiopia, where it operates industrial parks supplying global brands. Analysts warn that a sudden drop in demand for used clothing could destabilize supply chains in both regions. ‘China is watching closely,’ said Peter Oluoch, an economic analyst based in Nairobi. ‘If Kenya and Uganda move too fast, Beijing could retaliate with tariffs on other imports.’

Despite the risks, some economists argue that the shift could revitalize local industries. The East African Community (EAC) has pledged $200 million in grants to help manufacturers upgrade equipment and train workers. ‘This isn’t just about protectionism,’ said Dr. Leah Mwangi, an economist at the University of Nairobi. ‘It’s about giving local industries a fighting chance to compete.’ But others remain skeptical. ‘Twenty years ago, we had thriving textile industries,’ said Joseph Kinyua, a textile factory owner in Eldoret, Kenya. ‘Now, we’re begging the government to save us from imports that we used to make ourselves.’

The road ahead is fraught with challenges. Governments must balance the need to revive local industries with the economic realities of millions of consumers who rely on affordable secondhand goods. For now, the battle lines are drawn—and the stakes couldn’t be higher.