Below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast as El Niño looms
Forecasters warn 2026 could see the fewest hurricanes in a decade due to strengthening El Niño. Experts say just three to six storms may reach hurricane strength despite unusually warm Atlantic waters.
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have issued the first warning that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will likely fall below normal, with a 55% chance of below-average activity driven by a strengthening El Niño.
According to NOAA's forecast released Tuesday, the season—running from June 1 to November 30—is expected to produce between eight and 14 named storms, including three to six hurricanes. Only one to three of those hurricanes are predicted to reach Category 3 or higher, marking a sharp decline from the typical averages of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes per year.
Key Points
- ⚠️ 55% chance of below-normal hurricane activity in 2026
- ⛈️ Forecast includes 3–6 hurricanes, 1–3 of which may be major
- 🌊 Atlantic sea temperatures are unusually high, which historically fuels more storms
The forecast hinges on a robust El Niño developing in the Pacific, which disrupts tropical storm formation by increasing wind shear over the Atlantic. While warm ocean temperatures typically energize hurricanes, El Niño’s counteracting winds are expected to dominate, reducing overall storm counts. Still, forecasters emphasize that even a quiet season can spawn deadly storms.
- El Niño’s impact — Forecasters say the phenomenon will increase wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic, tearing apart storm systems before they intensify.
- Warm Atlantic waters — Sea surface temperatures remain above average, which historically fuels storm development but is being overpowered by El Niño this year.
- Historical context — If the forecast holds, 2026 would mark the lowest hurricane activity since 2015, when NOAA recorded just 11 named storms and four hurricanes.
The looming El Niño, now classified as moderate and strengthening, is projected to peak during the core months of hurricane season—August through October. This timing is critical, as it coincides with the period when storms most frequently form and intensify.
📋 By The Numbers
- 8–14 — Expected named storms in 2026, well below the 30-year average of 14
- 3–6 — Expected hurricanes, compared to the average of 7
- 1–3 — Expected major hurricanes (Category 3+), versus the average of 3
NOAA’s forecast aligns with a rare convergence of climate factors. While El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic activity, this year’s strong phase is colliding with record-warm sea surface temperatures—a combination that has complicated seasonal predictions.
💡 Pro Tip
Residents in coastal zones should not let the forecast lower their guard. A single major hurricane can devastate communities regardless of overall seasonal activity.
Last year, NOAA initially predicted a near-normal season, but an unexpected El Niño failed to fully develop, and the Atlantic produced 20 named storms, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes—far exceeding expectations. This year’s forecast carries higher confidence due to the strengthening El Niño signal.
| Factor | Impact on 2026 Season | Historical Influence |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño (strong) | ↓ Reduces storm formation | Typically cuts activity by 30–50% |
| Atlantic SST (above avg.) | ↑ Fuels storm potential | Correlates with more intense storms |
| Wind Shear (↑) | ↓ Disrupts storm organization | Increases during El Niño years |
Meteorologists caution that while the overall outlook is subdued, the threat of a destructive storm remains real. Past seasons with below-normal activity—such as 2015 and 2020—still produced hurricanes that caused billions in damage and claimed lives.
- 📊 Historical data shows that 30% of below-normal seasons still produce at least one major hurricane
- 🔍 Forecasters note that El Niño’s strength in mid-season will determine final storm counts
- ⚠️ Coastal residents are urged to prepare standard emergency kits despite lowered forecasts